Gold and silver show early signs of recovery

After almost nine days of sharp drops in price, gold and silver have shown some early signs of recovery ahead of today’s US rate decision.

Having fallen as low as $3,887.99 per ounce yesterday, gold has retaken $4,000 per ounce at the moment as the metal faces ongoing selling pressure in recent weeks. In GBP, gold is back above £3,000 per ounce, and €3,400 in euros. Gold has still lost nearly $300 in the past nine days, but has only lost the past two week's of gains in context.

Silver is up more than 4% in the past 24 hours, climbing back above $48 per ounce. Three week's worth of gains have been lost, but silver remains up 66% so far in 2025. In sterling, silver is back above £36 per ounce, and €41 in euro terms. As usual with silver, the losses have been greater than gold, but the recovery has also outpaced gold so far.

Later today the Federal Reserve will confirm the latest decision on US interest rates. A 25 basis point cut looks to be almost certain in the markets, with a 99.9% chance on the CME FedWatch Tool. With odds so high, the cut is likely to be priced-in, but there could be some volatility if the Fed should surprise with a 50bp cut, or a decision to hold fire. The Fed remain split with inflation proving sticky, but under pressure from the White House to cut rates faster.

Silver’s losses have been amplified by reports of increased liquidity in the London silver market, where lease rates have reportedly come back down to 5.6% on Monday versus the peak of 34.9% on October 9th. Demand for physical inventory remains strained however, and 5.6% would still be much higher than normal lease rates.

News of a major trade deal between the US and China also added to the risk-on attitude in the markets, and pulled some focus from safe havens towards the stock market. The threat by President Trump of 100% tariffs on China was short-lived, and the deal is expected to be finalised later this week.

Despite the dips, analysts remain confident that gold will push higher in 2026. A survey carried out at the LBMA’s recent Global Precious Metals Conference resulted in a forecast of $4,980.30 per ounce for gold by this time next year. This would represent another 25% rally from current levels and certainly suggests a bullish outlook among the market. Silver prices were also forecast to hit $59.10 per ounce, a similarly bullish outlook.

After the dramatic fall in both metals, a period of consolidation would be healthy and set up a strong new baseline for the metals to push higher from. If there’s anything the last two years have proven however, it’s that uncertainty continues to be the biggest driver for gold and silver, and both metals have outperformed expectations already.